Life Insurance and Emergency Prep

noah

Here is a summary of some plans and strategy i’m using for general life related insurance and risk hedging.

I have a twenty year old adopted daughter living with me while she originally moved back in with me to finish school but she dropped out and is just working. Unfortunately for her she isn’t able to earn enough to live in this city so I subsidize her housing and food. If something was to happen to me she would have extended family to help her if she needed and she would inherit my assets and be financially ok. My current concern in that scenario is that she wouldn’t know how to manage or maintain investments and loose the benefit of financial independence. I will impart what I can over time but ultimately her choices will be up to her.

I also have two small dogs that come from a past relationship and I love them. They have been by my side for ten years are the most important part of my life so I want to make sure they are safe and healthy. I bought a Nest Protect smoke detector because it has a feature that will notify me if there is a fire. This would at least give me a better chance to rescue them if I was out but nearby.

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I’m in the process of also putting together supplies for an earthquake or other emergency. This includes food, water, lights and a bag with warm clothes, and cash that I can grab if I need to leave in a hurry.

It’s always a good idea to maintain and check the coverage details of your property or rental insurance policy.

If you have dependents and don’t have financial independence levels of equity and depend on income that would disappear if you died it’s probably a good idea to look into a life insurance policy. Be sure to shop around because there is a big difference between offerings.

Other than that it’s always a good idea to keep an up to date will or let an emergency contact know your wishes should something happen to you. Now let’s hope nothing bad does happen.

Trading Bitcoin Manias

This post describes a trading strategy that I am using with digital currencies specifically Bitcoin. The system I use to trade is available online for free at http://algomega.com. To use it you would need to open an account on an exchange and that can take several weeks to complete.

My expectation of gains is high, 50% per year for the next two to five years. In my eyes this is an opportunity for gains if the market continues it’s volatility and or upward trend. Even as a small portion ones invetments this strategy could add a boost to financial independence.

These high expected returns make a big difference. As a comparison, I met with a financial advisor recently about managing my stock and bond investments. I currently hold self directed accounts and do rebalancing myself. The management fees of the financial advisor in the ballpark of 1.5% meant he would be making 65% of the income I wanted to withdrawal on for living expenses. That is a lot. If Bitcoin does go up by 50% per year it could be used to make gains not possible elsewhere at the same level of risk.

This strategy is based on the assumption that the price of Bitcoin will go up over the next few years. Trading the extreme peaks and valleys reduces the risk of buying at an all time high and also grow a cash reserve hedge. It’s pretty clear that Bitcoin has done well in the past but there have been times where people have bought in at a price that quickly dropped and then it took years to recover. This strategy hopes to reduce the likelihood of this happening by indicating times when not to buy when the market is overbought. This strategy also keeps a cash reserve as a hedge so that if the price was to drop unexpectedly you have some assets remaining to buy in or use for other purposes.

I personally believe that there are several reasons the price rise is likely but I won’t cover them all here. Some of the top reasons include the rapid activity of the developer community, improvements to the software and supporting infrastructure and businesses starting to work with digital currencies, the increasing user adoption rates and the gradually reducing production supply of the currency all play parts in my personal assessment.

The mania is a metric that measures rate of change both up and down over time. When the price rises at a rate that is higher than 99% of the past historical trading data then it is seen as a good indicator to sell a portion of holdings as the price and rate of rise always reverts in the other direction. The same applies to drops in price. When the price falls at a rate that is faster than 99% of the historical data it has always followed a reversal upwards and is a buying opportunity. When everyone is selling cheaply people panic but it has historically been the best time to buy.

The trends measured take into account a long term timeline. This means I look at trends based on the largest frequency of price cycling to reduce the risk of being caught out from an unexpected trend reversal. The long term objective is to accumulate bitcoin and trade when the indicators mark opportunities that only occur a few times per year at all. This makes it a low time commitment strategy.

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Here is an example report showing the Bitcoin price (Blue) against the mania (Red and black). You can see that durring the past price spikes the mania levels went above 1.5 and this would have been a good time to sell and definatly not a good time to buy. Durring the downturns when the mania droped below 0.4 the price has over time gone up and this has been a good time to buy in my experience.

A lot of people tend to think that they need to trade daily or weekly on short term trends but this is more work and not something that I do. I originally started out down this road and there is a reason why I don’t do this any more. I wrote a stock and crypto trading bot that used a genetic algorithm to learn an optimal strategy for profitable trading. After letting it run for months and years the bot did make a lot of money but less than simply buying and holding Bitcoin or dollar cost average buys.

This is not financial advice. Any investments you make are at your own risk. The value of Bitcoin or any other digital currency could for unforeseen reasons go to zero. It is important that if you buy into these currencies you are aware and can accept this risk. Only buy an amount that you are comfortable loosing.