Synchronicity

I have been noticing a series of interesting synchronicities lately. They were happening several times a day and each one I found surprising. Often times they match pares of two items, for example I would be making some food with two ingredients and as i’m about to pick it up and eat it a YouTube or podcast playing in the background will mention these two ingredients.

I’m getting back into a book on astral projection I made it half way through years ago. I will write a review on the book later, there are some interesting points made in it. In some ways I feel like this one particular synchronicity occurrence that follows is related in some way but I’m not sure how yet.

I went to the movie theatre with a friend last week we saw the latest Avengers End Game movie. It’s in 3D and as we walked in we both forgot to grab the 3D glasses. I looked at the ticket before hand and remember seeing that it was in 3D, I have never before in my life gone into a theatre without grabbing the glasses, I remember thinking when the movie started that’s weird, why did I do that, no big deal though the glasses are just at the door.

I think I enjoyed the movie more than my friend who had to think about it. When I got home I put on my apple TV to listen to music as I work on my laptop. At this point the apple TV is seven years old and i’m expecting it to kick the bucket any day now. The picture looked like it was bifurcating as if it was rendering the image interlaced in two locations just as a 3D movie in the theatre plays. This however is not intentional and a glitch. Special glasses won’t fix this. I thought well the Apple TV gave me a good run, at least if I buy a new one it will be a better model. I unplugged the power a few times to restart, replaced the HDMI cable, no change. Bummer, but oh well.

This is what it looked like.

The next day though it was back to normal.

I have a feeling that this means something but i’m not clear on what. The book i’m reading is describing the nature of the human mind and body complex being a set of physical, energy, astral and other bodies. Normally we are only aware of the physical body but the others are there and available if we look for them. I would guess that the symbology of 3D as it relates to viewing the world is significant? Or rather the normal world we see is like a picture on the screen but the nature of it behind the presentation is a structure or system. If this occurrence was a metaphor the theatre shows two images aided by glasses to present a 3D scene and the Apple TV was duplicating the same mechanism, being two offset images, in a way that made me take note.

As more context I have noticed that the universe often reflects back on us what we are thinking or answers questions and intentions, that is why i’m holding this weird 3D vision incident as somehow symbolic of some concept.

If you have any thoughts or impressions on this or have stories similar leave them in a comment, I’d love to hear from you.

Bitcoin Price Projection

As an experiment I wanted to see what would happen if I was to look at Bitcoins past rate of change pattern to see when the closest match occurred then take the price changes from that date and projected them forward into a hypothetical future chart.

The rate of change pattern is a plotted line of price changes day to day. The faster the price rises the higher the line will run and vice versa.

Here they are, I eventually will use multiple best match days and average them but for now, a six month pattern catches a pre bull run and projects a $79K USD price in the next few months. Although a three month pattern catches the 2013 peak and projects a decline below 5K USD before a run to $55K USD.

This is not meant to be a prediction and I would not recommend investing based on this information. It is only a thought experiment.

The six month chart doesn’t look right to my eye, I will double check the code.

The three month chart shows a price drop followed by a run in about 230 days time.

You can see in the charts that the actual data ends near the end and the rate and match lines zero out along with the dates.

This report is available at AlgoMega.com

Update:

There was an error in the way I was calculating the best pattern match. I was subtracting the current pattern from each of the historical price patterns but this doesn’t actually match the best pattern it just subtracts the current value from the historical price trends. Instead I changed the report to plot the matches using an inverted absolute value difference between the dates in the patterns. This way the best match actually finds the closest pattern. The results are much more sensible.

Here are the four month pattern results over the past eight years. It matches a peak so the subsequent price action is up a little.

These are the six month pattern results.

Obviously this is not a prediction and if you change the parameters you get different results every time. Because Bitcoin has always gone up over time these types of reports will always show a gain when projected out long enough.

Bitcoin Price Projection

I use reports at AlgoMega.com to get a sense for cyclical trends in the price of Bitcoin. Because the price has risen so significantly over the past eight years the past price history on a simple chart looks almost like a flat line but there are large scale timeline cycles that look, to me at least, somewhat predicable.

This report graph below shows the relative price drop from the last all time high. In this way we can see the price frequency trend between lows every few years and new highs. The price difference between these highs and lows is very significant and a trading strategy that buys during the most extreme levels of relative depth and small sells during high run ups in price as shown on another graph that plots the rate of rise over time should be relatively safe.

I’m posting this update today because while the estimated next all time high date is projected to be really soon, December of this year. The date fluctuates a lot between 2020 and sometimes out to 2021. This date is calculated by looking back through history where the trend is the same, price going up or price going down, and the relative position from the last high is the same and averaging the number of days until the subsequent all time high. I.e. this attempts to project the next all time high assuming the cyclical trend continues. Even if there isn’t a new all time high my prediction is that the price will cycle on a multi year time scale that can be traded. This next all time high date would project the time when the price will reach the past peak of $20,000.00.

Some guesses as to what the price will do after the next all time high follow:

Average gain rate: 6.87
Peak gain rate: 57.35
Last low price: $3303.81 USD
Future average price: $22700.37 USD
Next peak price: $189468.81 USD
Conservative peak price: $132628.17 USD (70% of peak rate)

Of course anything is possible and any future uptrend will depend on a wide variety of factors.

Bitcoin Price Trend Update

Using the current down from high level measured with direction (up/down) against past history and projected forward to the future gives a date of Feb 2020 for a new all time high.

Down from high chart. The value is shown in read and a version of it multiplied by the time since the last low is in black. This is just for curiosity as a hypothesis that if the market cycles the longer a cycle lasts the more extreme the price value is considered.

Mania using 30 days data. This chart shows the rate of price change in red. When the price goes up at a high rate this chart will show a spike and I use it as an opportunity to sell.

Mania over 60 days.

Mania over 90 days.

Mania over 6 months.

 

Up from low. This chart in green is supposed to show the relative gain from the past low for each bear/bull cycle. It still has trouble identifying cycle beginnings so the values are not totally correct. This can be used to calculate a hypothetical future all time high price should we see one more bull run. This chart shows a 50X, 22X, 18X and 57X gain over the past 8 years.

Bitcoin price projection from past cycles.

I am personally investing in Bitcoin because my judgement is that it will provide a gain in value independently of other investment options. Here is a summary of projections that I am using.

Previously I wrote about the timing of the next bull run based on the frequency duration average of past bull runs projected from the current time forward. The date for the next bull run lands around May, June or July of 2020. This is about one and a half years from now.

Today I have some projections on the price Bitcoin could reach if it follows a conservative repetition of peaks followed by long run ups.

This graph is still a work in progress but ruffly shows the btc price and logarithmic price along with the down from high (Red) and up from low (Green). The red line is used to identify market cycle lows for buying and the green line shows the relative price rise from lows for tracking when to sell. However the detection of cycle lows used to calculate the green line is a little buggy in places.

To get an estimate on the price of a possible future bull run peak I average the gains made from past cycles and multiply that factor by the projected current low of $3200. We may not have reached the bottom but the down from high chart shows that we reached levels low enough to be equivalent with past lows.

I have added the first run which is probably not relevant as the volume and market have changed significantly. I see an average low to peak value of 36. Or the peak was on average 36 times higher. So If I multiply the current low $3200 USD with 36x is $115,200.00.

If the next cycle achieves the same 57x gain as the last cycle (2017) the price should reach $182,400.00 usd and if the next cycle achieves a more conservative 17x gain from 2013 the price would reach $54,400.00.

This of course depends on increased adoption and investment from new users to achieve prices at this level.

 

Bitcoin Market Price Drop like 2015

The bitcoin price today has reached the same relative rate of decline as it did during the last major cycle almost four years ago. The decline has also taken almost exactly the same if just a few weeks early.

I’m posting this because I think its a rare event and I’m keeping an eye on the market for a correction and buying in.

The thirty day rate of change over time graph is showing that the current drop is so sharp that less than one half of a percent (13 days out of 8 years) of all past history exceeds it.

The drop from high cycle graph (red) shows the relative drop is now the same as it was in January of 2015. The time value (black) indicates that it has occurred slightly earlier than last time.

The average down from high data from this level to an all time high is 463 days, projecting forward that lands on March 14, 2020.

 

 

 

What was that sound? Astral Projection

For many years I had a strong interest and spent a significant amount of time exploring practices to achieve astral projection. I read many books on the subject, tried exercises over a few years and had some interesting experiences as a result but definitely not as amazing as others. It took a lot of effort and as a result of some roadblocks I put the whole thing on hold for many years. Recently my interest has started to return and I have started exploring again these other worldly experiences.

This morning when I woke up I found myself laying in my bed in this state that I recognize must be as others have described, mind awake body asleep. I knew my body was sleeping in bed and I could tell it was there and I know how to wake it up when I want to. I could hear from the hallway a repeating popping sound. It was super loud and I was aware that it was not coming from the waking world.

The best thing that I could compare the sound to is a kids ball popping toy that pops as it is rolled. Only the sound did not include balls bouncing around just the clicking. I thought it was so loud that if it was from the waking world I would expect a noise complaint as a building council member.

The sound didn’t appear to be moving, it wasn’t someone walking down the hallway. It seemed to be about fifteen feet away. I could feel the sound resonance of it in the space.

I have had this scenario happen before but not in the condo I live now. In the past I have heard things like footsteps on the roof above my room but the only thing I have ever seen with my eyes are an astral version of my dog and bed and room. I haven’t ever seen any person or creature that doesn’t belong. It’s usually very peaceful and quiet.

During this experience I was struck with an unbelievable sense of amazement that there is another world right here and that we can touch it if we really want to.

For anyone that hasn’t experienced this before, I have to say these are not dreams. The sensory input while in this state is far more clear and vibrant than waking life. Dreams are foggy and transient or constantly changing. Waking life has ha heavier, physically more limited feeling. There is a familiar sense of recognition and comfort in this space. There is no physical discomfort from the body, vision is exceptionally clear as with sounds.

The experience this morning only lasted about ten seconds and I felt myself fade out back to my physical body and the natural pain from a twisted neck from sleeping badly. I tried to hold on as long as I can. Some literature describes getting up and walking around to explore. When I try this it just breaks the connection and I wake up. The only way, so far, that I have been able to walk around is to find myself already out of body.

I wonder what the sound was. Maybe tomorrow I can go find out.

 

Bitcoin report projects the date of the next all time high

At AlgoMega.com I have a report the plots the relative ratio of the price as it compares with the last all time high. This is intended to show that the price cycles between periods of troughs and peaks.

The red line shows this ratio where 0 is an all time high and the higher the level reflects a drop. 1 would be a drop to a price of 0. Maybe I made this more complicated than it needs to be by inverting the trends.

I thought it would be interesting to project a possible date for the next all time high using an average of the past data where the ratio matches.

The process looks at the current DFH value and it’s trajectory noting if the price trend is down (bear market) or up (bull market). Then I collect all of the past dates having the same DFH value with the same trend.

The trend direction is important because the same DFH values have different times to the next ATH depending if they are heading down or up as a drop has to bottom out and return the other direction.

All of the DFH values are scanned forward to find the number of days to the ATH and the average of those days are taken.

So based on this method, when is the next all time high? It’s in 544 days on May 27, 2020.

 

 

Here is a markup image on how the calculations are made.

 

Update:

One hour later and the date is May 05, 2020. It is just an average so the value will jump around.

My thoughts on this result are of encouragement for the future of the market. I have read a lot of negative articles and posts on the web because of the recent price drop but over the long term these cycles repeat over and over. If you can wait a year and a half I am guessing that the price will in fact return to a new all time high or at least something interesting.

Anther very interesting date coming up in May of 2020 is the next mining halving from 12.5 btc per block to 6.25. This will reduce the production of currency into the next work going forward from that time.

 

Update Next Day:

Someone mentioned that they don’t like the implication there will be another all time high. So I think it’s more reasonable to use this projection as a possible future multi year high date.

Because the previous metric was inverted I decided to add a sin wave style graph oscillating a zero plane. This way you can see the cycles alternate between over and under valued. The light green line shows the drop from past high and the dark green line shows the same DFH value multiplied by the log value of the number of days since that peak.

 

Bitcoin Market Update

Since the BTC market is trading down about 35% in the past few days I thought I would write a quick blurb about my thoughts and personal trades.

I am buying small amounts at these prices and also anticipating the price will go down more from here. I made a withdrawal from an exchange in June of this year for a decent amount of dollars but it never came through. I asked to have the withdrawal canceled so I have the ability to buy right away. In Canada at least it can be difficult to move dollars to and from exchanges. I always keep a balance of cash in my bank account and stock brokerage accounts so that in the case where they go bankrupt I will have enough to pay taxes and live until I can move other assets around.

My thought is that BTC is a good thing to have as a long term investment. I think the chance of it becoming much more valuable in the next few years is higher than the chance it won’t.

The market tends to cycle through extreme peaks and valleys. Looking back you can see this between $0.30 – $30, $10 – $1000, $250 – 20,000.00. Being in a downtrend now I wanted to see how the current price relative to the last peak compares historically so I put a new report together.

The red line chart shows the relative level from the last peak. When the value is 0 that is an all time high. You can see that of all past data that I have collected only 8.7% of it has been been at a price level lower relative to the peak than is it currently. You can also see several trend reversals below our current level.

I think it’s reasonable for the price to go down lower so that it matches the same past levels but then hopefully it will continue in another uptrend.

Here is another chart I like to look at. It plots the relative rate of change. Currently the rate of decline in price is so fast that only 1.31% of the past data has exceeded it. I use this chart to sell when the rate of price rise approaches the previous maximums. When the rate of decline is low like it is now I buy small amounts regularly.

These charts are available at http://algomega.com. I plan on implementing email notifications of significant market opportunities as a service later on if there is any interest.

 

Update: Down From Peak with Time

Part of my interest in making charts to visualize relationships of price metrics over time is to find possible indicators that somewhat accurately measure the scenarios that correspond with with beginning of a bull run in order to buy and conversely the end of a run in order to sell.

In this case I have a drop from peak by time chart for use as a possible buy signal. The hypothesis is that the market runs up until it’s overvalued and people jump in and drive the price into a peak then it corrects and sags for a long period until everyone is convinced that the price has bottomed before people slowly start to reinvest. So I have added the time from the last peak as a multiplayer to the ‘down from peak’ value. This is because if the market is cyclical between under and overvalues states, the longer the market remains in a valley state the less likely it is to remain there. I suspect that people look at the price charts and recognize the undervalued state to buy in.

This report does accurately show the bottom price in 2015 as the black line is very high. The chart isn’t scaled very well in that it doesn’t show a consistent result between different cycles so I will keep thinking about this.

 

I don’t have much data for Ethereum, Litecoin and Dash but the charts are pretty interesting as well.

 

Update 2 – Nov 25, 2018

Just noting that after another day the price has dropped again and the rate of decline over thirty days is so fast that only 0.42% of past history or 11 days have been faster than this and only 2.92% of past history (76 days) has ever been lower from the last peak down from 9% two days ago.

Financial Independence One Year On.

It’s been one year since I was let go of my job as a software developer. A lot has changed over the last year and I thought I would share some of my experience and thoughts.

To me financial independence meant that I had to accumulate enough money and invested assets that I could draw on them an amount up to 4% of the total each year with an additional margin and have that cover all of my living expenses.

It took me about ten years to achieve this when it was the primary focus meaning all other financial decisions come second to investing only for independence. And most of the gains happened in the last year thanks to gains in Bitcoin.

After not working a job it took more than six months for my stress level from work to wind down. It’s hard to describe how stress manifested for me, it was like a pressure on my chest.

Over the year a big perspective change comes about from a change in habits. Most days I stay up late working on my car company because I love it. Each day it free to socialize or walk my dogs. I inherently feel like I can afford anything I want and need. My dog needed surgery that cost $10,000.00 and the only reaction was of gratitude that my dogs need was effortlessly met. Social gatherings are pure enjoyment regardless of the cost. I feel like everything is free for me, strata fees, bills, groceries, wine for gifts when I go to other peoples houses etc.

Passion for projects and people has become the primary topic of my awareness which is motivating and incredibly satisfying.

The primary source of suffering has gone from the need for dedicating 8-12 hours a day to the job to more fundamental and evolving issues around personal growth. I think the core issue is that at a job you can only work on a few issues at a time because the time is dedicated to production where as personal freedom allows us to address specific issues head on and move on when we are done.

One question I had while working as an employee was about the nature of happiness and reward. I have always wanted freedom over my time to do and think about the things I want and not what I have to in order to pay the bills. I wondered that when I didn’t have to work would the satisfaction of achievement of that goal diminish over time. Well it hasn’t. Personal freedom for me has been a new horizon. It is a paradigm shift and my consciousness feels more alive in a way I could only envision for brief moments in the past.

My current plan is to build my car company, http://armaautomotive.com so that the very few people who really want a supercar can have one. The price is high but not necessarily money. Additionally I have a few other business project lined up but the large focus for me is in building a more connected social network and meet new people to learn and enjoy fun and service based explorations.