As an experiment I wanted to see what would happen if I was to look at Bitcoins past rate of change pattern to see when the closest match occurred then take the price changes from that date and projected them forward into a hypothetical future chart.
The rate of change pattern is a plotted line of price changes day to day. The faster the price rises the higher the line will run and vice versa.
Here they are, I eventually will use multiple best match days and average them but for now, a six month pattern catches a pre bull run and projects a $79K USD price in the next few months. Although a three month pattern catches the 2013 peak and projects a decline below 5K USD before a run to $55K USD.
This is not meant to be a prediction and I would not recommend investing based on this information. It is only a thought experiment.
The six month chart doesn’t look right to my eye, I will double check the code.
The three month chart shows a price drop followed by a run in about 230 days time.
You can see in the charts that the actual data ends near the end and the rate and match lines zero out along with the dates.
This report is available at AlgoMega.com
There was an error in the way I was calculating the best pattern match. I was subtracting the current pattern from each of the historical price patterns but this doesn’t actually match the best pattern it just subtracts the current value from the historical price trends. Instead I changed the report to plot the matches using an inverted absolute value difference between the dates in the patterns. This way the best match actually finds the closest pattern. The results are much more sensible.
Here are the four month pattern results over the past eight years. It matches a peak so the subsequent price action is up a little.
These are the six month pattern results.
Obviously this is not a prediction and if you change the parameters you get different results every time. Because Bitcoin has always gone up over time these types of reports will always show a gain when projected out long enough.