As an experiment I wanted to see what would happen if I was to look at Bitcoins past rate of change pattern to see when the closest match occurred then take the price changes from that date and projected them forward into a hypothetical future chart.
The rate of change pattern is a plotted line of price changes day to day. The faster the price rises the higher the line will run and vice versa.
Here they are, I eventually will use multiple best match days and average them but for now, a six month pattern catches a pre bull run and projects a $79K USD price in the next few months. Although a three month pattern catches the 2013 peak and projects a decline below 5K USD before a run to $55K USD.
This is not meant to be a prediction and I would not recommend investing based on this information. It is only a thought experiment.
The six month chart doesn’t look right to my eye, I will double check the code.
The three month chart shows a price drop followed by a run in about 230 days time.
You can see in the charts that the actual data ends near the end and the rate and match lines zero out along with the dates.
This report is available at AlgoMega.com
I use reports at AlgoMega.com to get a sense for cyclical trends in the price of Bitcoin. Because the price has risen so significantly over the past eight years the past price history on a simple chart looks almost like a flat line but there are large scale timeline cycles that look, to me at least, somewhat predicable.
This report graph below shows the relative price drop from the last all time high. In this way we can see the price frequency trend between lows every few years and new highs. The price difference between these highs and lows is very significant and a trading strategy that buys during the most extreme levels of relative depth and small sells during high run ups in price as shown on another graph that plots the rate of rise over time should be relatively safe.
I’m posting this update today because while the estimated next all time high date is projected to be really soon, December of this year. The date fluctuates a lot between 2020 and sometimes out to 2021. This date is calculated by looking back through history where the trend is the same, price going up or price going down, and the relative position from the last high is the same and averaging the number of days until the subsequent all time high. I.e. this attempts to project the next all time high assuming the cyclical trend continues. Even if there isn’t a new all time high my prediction is that the price will cycle on a multi year time scale that can be traded. This next all time high date would project the time when the price will reach the past peak of $20,000.00.
Some guesses as to what the price will do after the next all time high follow:
Average gain rate: 6.87
Peak gain rate: 57.35
Last low price: $3303.81 USD
Future average price: $22700.37 USD
Next peak price: $189468.81 USD
Conservative peak price: $132628.17 USD (70% of peak rate)
Of course anything is possible and any future uptrend will depend on a wide variety of factors.