Bitcoin price projection from past cycles.

I am personally investing in Bitcoin because my judgement is that it will provide a gain in value independently of other investment options. Here is a summary of projections that I am using.

Previously I wrote about the timing of the next bull run based on the frequency duration average of past bull runs projected from the current time forward. The date for the next bull run lands around May, June or July of 2020. This is about one and a half years from now.

Today I have some projections on the price Bitcoin could reach if it follows a conservative repetition of peaks followed by long run ups.

This graph is still a work in progress but ruffly shows the btc price and logarithmic price along with the down from high (Red) and up from low (Green). The red line is used to identify market cycle lows for buying and the green line shows the relative price rise from lows for tracking when to sell. However the detection of cycle lows used to calculate the green line is a little buggy in places.

To get an estimate on the price of a possible future bull run peak I average the gains made from past cycles and multiply that factor by the projected current low of $3200. We may not have reached the bottom but the down from high chart shows that we reached levels low enough to be equivalent with past lows.

I have added the first run which is probably not relevant as the volume and market have changed significantly. I see an average low to peak value of 36. Or the peak was on average 36 times higher. So If I multiply the current low $3200 USD with 36x is $115,200.00.

If the next cycle achieves the same 57x gain as the last cycle (2017) the price should reach $182,400.00 usd and if the next cycle achieves a more conservative 17x gain from 2013 the price would reach $54,400.00.

This of course depends on increased adoption and investment from new users to achieve prices at this level.

 

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