Bitcoin Market Price Drop like 2015

The bitcoin price today has reached the same relative rate of decline as it did during the last major cycle almost four years ago. The decline has also taken almost exactly the same if just a few weeks early.

I’m posting this because I think its a rare event and I’m keeping an eye on the market for a correction and buying in.

The thirty day rate of change over time graph is showing that the current drop is so sharp that less than one half of a percent (13 days out of 8 years) of all past history exceeds it.

The drop from high cycle graph (red) shows the relative drop is now the same as it was in January of 2015. The time value (black) indicates that it has occurred slightly earlier than last time.

The average down from high data from this level to an all time high is 463 days, projecting forward that lands on March 14, 2020.

 

 

 

What was that sound? Astral Projection

For many years I had a strong interest and spent a significant amount of time exploring practices to achieve astral projection. I read many books on the subject, tried exercises over a few years and had some interesting experiences as a result but definitely not as amazing as others. It took a lot of effort and as a result of some roadblocks I put the whole thing on hold for many years. Recently my interest has started to return and I have started exploring again these other worldly experiences.

This morning when I woke up I found myself laying in my bed in this state that I recognize must be as others have described, mind awake body asleep. I knew my body was sleeping in bed and I could tell it was there and I know how to wake it up when I want to. I could hear from the hallway a repeating popping sound. It was super loud and I was aware that it was not coming from the waking world.

The best thing that I could compare the sound to is a kids ball popping toy that pops as it is rolled. Only the sound did not include balls bouncing around just the clicking. I thought it was so loud that if it was from the waking world I would expect a noise complaint as a building council member.

The sound didn’t appear to be moving, it wasn’t someone walking down the hallway. It seemed to be about fifteen feet away. I could feel the sound resonance of it in the space.

I have had this scenario happen before but not in the condo I live now. In the past I have heard things like footsteps on the roof above my room but the only thing I have ever seen with my eyes are an astral version of my dog and bed and room. I haven’t ever seen any person or creature that doesn’t belong. It’s usually very peaceful and quiet.

During this experience I was struck with an unbelievable sense of amazement that there is another world right here and that we can touch it if we really want to.

For anyone that hasn’t experienced this before, I have to say these are not dreams. The sensory input while in this state is far more clear and vibrant than waking life. Dreams are foggy and transient or constantly changing. Waking life has ha heavier, physically more limited feeling. There is a familiar sense of recognition and comfort in this space. There is no physical discomfort from the body, vision is exceptionally clear as with sounds.

The experience this morning only lasted about ten seconds and I felt myself fade out back to my physical body and the natural pain from a twisted neck from sleeping badly. I tried to hold on as long as I can. Some literature describes getting up and walking around to explore. When I try this it just breaks the connection and I wake up. The only way, so far, that I have been able to walk around is to find myself already out of body.

I wonder what the sound was. Maybe tomorrow I can go find out.

 

Bitcoin report projects the date of the next all time high

At AlgoMega.com I have a report the plots the relative ratio of the price as it compares with the last all time high. This is intended to show that the price cycles between periods of troughs and peaks.

The red line shows this ratio where 0 is an all time high and the higher the level reflects a drop. 1 would be a drop to a price of 0. Maybe I made this more complicated than it needs to be by inverting the trends.

I thought it would be interesting to project a possible date for the next all time high using an average of the past data where the ratio matches.

The process looks at the current DFH value and it’s trajectory noting if the price trend is down (bear market) or up (bull market). Then I collect all of the past dates having the same DFH value with the same trend.

The trend direction is important because the same DFH values have different times to the next ATH depending if they are heading down or up as a drop has to bottom out and return the other direction.

All of the DFH values are scanned forward to find the number of days to the ATH and the average of those days are taken.

So based on this method, when is the next all time high? It’s in 544 days on May 27, 2020.

 

 

Here is a markup image on how the calculations are made.

 

Update:

One hour later and the date is May 05, 2020. It is just an average so the value will jump around.

My thoughts on this result are of encouragement for the future of the market. I have read a lot of negative articles and posts on the web because of the recent price drop but over the long term these cycles repeat over and over. If you can wait a year and a half I am guessing that the price will in fact return to a new all time high or at least something interesting.

Anther very interesting date coming up in May of 2020 is the next mining halving from 12.5 btc per block to 6.25. This will reduce the production of currency into the next work going forward from that time.

 

Update Next Day:

Someone mentioned that they don’t like the implication there will be another all time high. So I think it’s more reasonable to use this projection as a possible future multi year high date.

Because the previous metric was inverted I decided to add a sin wave style graph oscillating a zero plane. This way you can see the cycles alternate between over and under valued. The light green line shows the drop from past high and the dark green line shows the same DFH value multiplied by the log value of the number of days since that peak.