At AlgoMega.com I have a report the plots the relative ratio of the price as it compares with the last all time high. This is intended to show that the price cycles between periods of troughs and peaks.
The red line shows this ratio where 0 is an all time high and the higher the level reflects a drop. 1 would be a drop to a price of 0. Maybe I made this more complicated than it needs to be by inverting the trends.
I thought it would be interesting to project a possible date for the next all time high using an average of the past data where the ratio matches.
The process looks at the current DFH value and it’s trajectory noting if the price trend is down (bear market) or up (bull market). Then I collect all of the past dates having the same DFH value with the same trend.
The trend direction is important because the same DFH values have different times to the next ATH depending if they are heading down or up as a drop has to bottom out and return the other direction.
All of the DFH values are scanned forward to find the number of days to the ATH and the average of those days are taken.
So based on this method, when is the next all time high? It’s in 544 days on May 27, 2020.
Here is a markup image on how the calculations are made.
One hour later and the date is May 05, 2020. It is just an average so the value will jump around.
My thoughts on this result are of encouragement for the future of the market. I have read a lot of negative articles and posts on the web because of the recent price drop but over the long term these cycles repeat over and over. If you can wait a year and a half I am guessing that the price will in fact return to a new all time high or at least something interesting.
Anther very interesting date coming up in May of 2020 is the next mining halving from 12.5 btc per block to 6.25. This will reduce the production of currency into the next work going forward from that time.
Update Next Day:
Someone mentioned that they don’t like the implication there will be another all time high. So I think it’s more reasonable to use this projection as a possible future multi year high date.
Because the previous metric was inverted I decided to add a sin wave style graph oscillating a zero plane. This way you can see the cycles alternate between over and under valued. The light green line shows the drop from past high and the dark green line shows the same DFH value multiplied by the log value of the number of days since that peak.